Executive summary: the strategy’s main themes

The next decade is set to be characterized by the growing role of renewable energy and digital networks, the use of platforms and the gradual electrification of consumption. These are all opportunities that the Enel Group will seize as it focuses its strategy on the acceleration of the energy transition, on digital platforms that boost traditional business models and enable new ones, generating sustainable growth and creating value for all: customers, society, the environment and shareholders.

 

Towards 2030

The coming decades will see a revolution in the world of energy that will require unprecedented global investment. Enel, thanks to its leadership in the sector, is perfectly positioned to harness the value deriving from the acceleration of the energy transition, mobilizing its own investments and those of third parties for a total of 190 billion euros over the next 10 years.

More than 150 billion euros will be invested directly by the Group through its traditional Ownership business model, plus around 10 billion euros through the Stewardship business model with which the Group will also catalyze investments made by third parties via joint ventures and partnerships in renewables, fiber optics, electric transport and flexibility services. Therefore, a further 30 billion euros will be mobilized from third parties.

 

Renewables, energy storage and green hydrogen

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For 2030 the Group expects to have tripled its capacity from renewable sources, reaching around 145 GW of installed capacity (the equivalent of a global market share of over 4%), from the current figure of around 49 GW (a 2.5% market share). This will be possible thanks to the mobilization of around 85 billion euros during this period.

A further 5 billion euros will be invested in the hybridization of renewable sources and energy storage, the potential of which is estimated to reach approximately 20 TWh in 2030.

Significant opportunities will also emerge in the field of green hydrogen through the integration of electrolyzers at renewable plants, with the goal of exceeding 2,000 MW of capacity in 2030.

Thanks to its commitment to decarbonization, at the end of the decade the Group will have reduced direct emissions of CO2 by 80% compared with 2017 levels, a goal certified in the SBTi (Science-Based Targets initiative) in line with the current 1.5 °C scenario (today’s most challenging goal).

 

Infrastructure and networks: towards 90 million end users

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As far as the planned investments in the Ownership business model are concerned, about 46% will be allocated to the Infrastructure and Networks business, and this will strengthen the Group’s position as a world leader in terms of size, digitalization, quality and network resilience. At the end of 2030, the Group is expected to reach about 90 million end users (today there are 74 million), all equipped with smart meters (compared with 60% today).

 

Increasing customer value in the B2C, B2B e B2G segments

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The remaining investments will relate to clients and will be aimed at increasing customer value. The Group will have an enabling role in the process of electrification, combining the traditional offer with “beyond commodity” services and accelerating clients’ journeys towards sustainability and energy efficiency.

In this business category the Group includes the segments of B2C (Business to Customer), B2B (Business to Business) e B2G (Business to Government).

In the B2C segment, the Group intends to promote electrification to the client base through an integrated offer of energy and services provided by Enel X.

In B2B Enel will endeavor to assume a role as main partner for companies on their journeys towards sustainability and energy efficiency. With this intent, in addition to traditional products, such as PPA, new services will be combined, such as energy storage, demand response and electric mobility solutions.

In the B2G segment, the Group will help cities achieve their decarbonization and sustainability goals through the electrification of public transport, smart lighting and other advanced services.

In 2030 the Group predicts the number of electric buses to rise to over 10,000 (12 times the figure for 2020), while the number of public lighting points will reach roughly 4 million (as opposed to the estimated figure of 2.9 million in 2020). Furthermore, electric vehicle charging points are expected to number in excess of 4 million (23 times the figure for 2020). This is in addition to more than threefold growth in demand response solutions, reaching around 20 GW.

 

The 2021-2023 Plan

The next three years will lay the foundations for the Group to achieve its goals for 2030.

In the three-year period 2021-2023, in fact, Enel plans to directly invest around 40 billion euros, of which 38 will be allocated to the Ownership business model and around 2 billion to the Stewardship model, mobilizing simultaneously 8 billion euros from third parties. Compared with the previous Strategic Plan, there is a significant growth in investments with an increase of 36%.

Enel will invest around 17 billion euros (in addition to the approximately 3 billion euros invested by third parties) in renewable energy, leading to a total capacity of 68 GW in 2023 (+39% with respect to 2020). In this way, the Group plans to further accelerate the process of decarbonization, increasing capacity from clean sources and more than offsetting the closure of coal-fired power plants. Consequently, the Group plans to reduce its Scope 1 COemissions by more than 30% between 2020 and 2023.

The Group plans to invest 16.2 billion euros in the three-year period in infrastructure and networks: 65% of this amount will be dedicated to improvements in terms of quality and resilience, around 23% to new connections and around 12% to digitalization. End users are set to number around 77 million at the end of 2023, of which 64% will be equipped with smart meters.

The rest of the investments will relate to Client business, where increases in customer value of 30% in the B2C segment and 45% in the B2B segment are planned.

 

Sustainable finance

The Group will continue with its strategy also in the field of sustainable finance. Currently, the sources of sustainable finance represent around a third of the Group’s total gross debt and this is expected to reach 50% in 2023 and over 70% in 2030 through the gradual refinancing of mature bonds and the raising of new funds through sustainable tools.

The continuous optimization of the Group’s financial management will result in lower cost of debt.

 

EBITDA, profit and dividends

 Earnings growth
2020 E 2021 2022 2023 CAGR 2020-23
Ordinary EBITDA (€bn)
~18 18.7-19.3 19.7-20.3 20.7-21.3 +5%/+6%
Net ordinary income (€bn)
5.0-5.2 5.4-5.6 5.9-6.1 6.5-6.7 +8%/+10%
Value creation
Guaranteed DPS (€/share)
0.35
0.38
0.40
0.43
~7%

At Group level it is expected that ordinary EBITDA will amount to between 20.7 and 21.3 billion euros in 2023 (with a CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, of 5% to 6%) and ordinary net income of between 6.5 and 6.7 billion euros (with a CAGR of between 8% and 10%).

Enel has developed a dividend policy based on simplicity and predictability, ensuring its shareholders a fixed, guaranteed and increasing dividend per share over the next three years, which will reach 0.43 euros per share to 2023 from the current 0.35 euros planned for the 2020 financial year.

Documents

Strategic Plan 2021-2023

PDF (4.74MB) Download

Strategic Plan 2021-2023: Key figures

XLSX (0.38MB) Download
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